A lot of drivers I speak to have quietly made the same decision: keep the petrol car, see what happens, and deal with the consequences later. It’s a reasonable instinct. The car is paid off, it runs fine, and the thought of committing to an EV on a charging network that still has reliability issues feels premature. But “deal with the consequences later” is arriving faster than most people planned for, and the financial picture is more complicated than simply paying for fuel and an annual service. Understanding the genuine cost of keeping a petrol car UK 2030 and beyond means looking at several converging pressures at once.
VED: what the tax changes actually look like for older petrol and diesel cars
Vehicle Excise Duty has already started to shift against internal combustion engine vehicles. From April 2025, new electric cars were brought into standard VED rates for the first time, which sounds like levelling the playing field. In practice, though, the government’s longer-term trajectory continues to favour zero-emission vehicles. The current VED rate tables on GOV.UK show that cars registered after April 2017 pay a flat standard rate, but older petrol cars registered before that date are taxed on CO2 emissions, and those bands have not shrunk over time.
What’s coming after 2030 is the sharper issue. Once the new petrol car sale ban comes into effect, HMRC and the Treasury will need to replace fuel duty revenue from somewhere. Fuel duty currently raises around £25 billion per year, and as the fleet electrifies, that income disappears. Road pricing, higher VED for combustion vehicles, or supplementary levies on petrol and diesel use are all credible policy directions. No firm legislation exists yet, but the direction of travel is clear: retaining an older ICE car will become progressively more expensive from a tax standpoint, not less.
Residual values: the slow collapse nobody is planning for
This is the one that I think genuinely catches people off guard. Residual values for petrol and diesel cars have held up better than many EV advocates predicted over the past two years, partly because EV residuals themselves dropped sharply. But that equilibrium will not last indefinitely.
Once the 2035 petrol sale ban milestone approaches, the second-hand market for older combustion cars faces a structural problem: a very large supply of vehicles that cannot legally be sold new, competing for buyers who are increasingly accustomed to electric running costs. Cap HPI and Cazana both track UK used car valuations closely, and their projections consistently show petrol cars registered between 2020 and 2030 losing value faster than equivalent models did in previous decades once they pass the ten-year mark.
A petrol car you buy new today for £28,000 might be worth £8,000-£10,000 by 2035 under a moderate depreciation scenario. Under a pessimistic one, where EV adoption accelerates rapidly and petrol demand compresses, the same car could be worth considerably less. I’d argue most private owners are not pricing this into their decision-making at all, because the loss is invisible until the day they try to sell or part-exchange.
This also has knock-on effects for anyone who bought using personal contract purchase (PCP). If the guaranteed minimum future value set at the start of the agreement proves optimistic, you face a gap finance situation that leaves you with negative equity. Anyone considering PCP on a petrol car right now should read our detailed comparison of leasing versus buying before committing, because the residual value assumptions baked into those deals will look very different by the early 2030s.
Servicing and parts availability after the mandate kicks in
Combustion engine servicing is not going away overnight. Independent garages will continue to service petrol and diesel cars for decades, and main dealers have a commercial incentive to retain older vehicles as servicing revenue while new car sales shrink. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) estimates there are currently around 40 million vehicles on UK roads, and the majority are still petrol or diesel. That fleet does not vanish in 2030.
What does change is the economics of parts. Once manufacturers stop producing new ICE platforms, economies of scale for replacement components begin to shrink. This is already visible in the used car market for models that were discontinued early. Specialist parts for older diesel engines, catalytic converters, particulate filters and increasingly complex emissions-control systems all carry a premium. As more workshops pivot their training and tooling towards EVs, finding a technician who genuinely understands a complex turbocharged petrol engine may become less straightforward in some parts of the country.
Broadly, I’d estimate that routine servicing costs for a petrol car held past 2032 will rise by somewhere between 15% and 25% in real terms, driven by parts costs rather than labour rates. For high-mileage drivers, that adds up quickly.
How lenders are already changing the way they view older ICE vehicles
This is the most immediate financial pressure, and it is already happening. Several UK lenders have quietly started to apply higher interest rates to finance agreements on older petrol and diesel cars, particularly those with higher emissions. The logic is straightforward: the collateral backing the loan is depreciating faster than historical models predicted, so the lender’s risk is higher.
Equity release and secured loan products that use your car as an asset are also being reassessed. A diesel SUV that was worth £22,000 two years ago and is now worth £16,000 represents a meaningfully different risk profile to a lender than it did previously. This is worth keeping in mind if you are considering using a petrol vehicle as a trade-in or part of a broader finance arrangement, as the valuation offered by the lender may be lower than any online estimate you find.
For context on how the ZEV mandate is already reshaping the choices available to buyers and dealers alike, our piece on what the ZEV mandate means in practice covers the regulatory mechanics in detail. The short version: manufacturers are under real pressure now, not in 2030, and that pressure is already filtering down into pricing and availability of ICE models.
Is holding onto your current petrol car actually worth it?
Honestly, it depends almost entirely on your mileage, your ownership timeline and whether you finance the vehicle or own it outright. For cash buyers who drive modest mileages and plan to run a car for ten or more years regardless of its resale value, a well-maintained petrol car bought today or held from an existing purchase can still make financial sense. Running costs per mile remain competitive, particularly for drivers who spend most of their time on motorways rather than in city traffic where hybrids and EVs have their biggest advantage.
The calculation looks worse for higher-mileage drivers, anyone using finance, and anyone who lives in or near a city that is actively expanding clean air zones. It also looks worse if you drive a diesel, where residual value collapse is already more pronounced and regulatory pressure is heavier. The 2035 petrol car ban is the end point, but the financial effects of the transition are front-loaded into the years before it.
My take: if you are within two or three years of naturally replacing your car anyway, this is probably the moment to think carefully about your next move rather than assuming petrol will always be the safe default. The cost of keeping a petrol car in the UK past 2030 is not catastrophic for every owner, but it is real, it is measurable, and for most drivers it is going to be higher than they currently expect.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will VED (road tax) increase for petrol cars after 2030 in the UK?
No firm legislation has been passed yet, but the government needs to replace fuel duty revenue as the fleet electrifies. Most independent analysts expect VED to rise for older petrol and diesel vehicles in the early 2030s, either through higher standard rates or new emissions-linked surcharges. Drivers should treat current rates as a floor rather than a ceiling.
How much will my petrol car be worth in 2030 or 2035?
Residual value projections from Cap HPI and Cazana suggest petrol cars registered between 2020 and 2030 will depreciate faster than previous generations once they pass the ten-year mark, partly due to competition from cheaper used EVs. A car worth £28,000 today could realistically be worth £8,000-£10,000 by 2035 under a moderate scenario, less under a pessimistic one.
Will it become harder to get finance on an older petrol car?
Yes, this is already beginning to happen. Some UK lenders are applying higher interest rates to finance agreements on older or high-emission ICE vehicles because the collateral depreciates faster than historical models predicted. Trade-in and part-exchange valuations offered by dealers may also reflect this more conservative risk assessment.